GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE AT THE POINT OF STRUCTURAL DECOUPLING: HOW FRAGMENTATION AND RENATIONALIZATION REDEFINE GEOECONOMIC COMPETITION

Abstract

The article explores the evolving character of global infrastructure under the accelerating conditions of geoeconomic fragmentation. It examines how the erosion of the previous model of hyperglobalization, the restructuring of international production networks, the weaponization of interdependence and the politicization of global value chains redefine the strategic logic of infrastructure development. The study emphasizes that fragmentation has become a systemic force reshaping patterns of connectivity, financial flows, and investment priorities, while infrastructural decoupling increasingly acts as a mechanism through which states seek to protect national interests and reduce vulnerabilities. The paper analyzes key drivers of fragmentation, including the crisis of multilateral institutions, the resurgence of industrial policy, the intensification of technological rivalry, the rise of economic nationalism, energy insecurity, and differentiated regional responses to global shocks.

Special attention is devoted to the duality of contemporary infrastructural transformations. On the one hand, global connectivity remains a critical foundation for economic development, trade, digitalization, and supply chain efficiency. On the other hand, the strategic behavior of states reflects a growing preference for the renationalization of investment, selective protectionism, the securitization of critical infrastructure, and the construction of parallel networks outside traditional Western-centric systems. This dual process leads to the emergence of competing infrastructural regimes, where global, regional and national interests intersect and frequently collide. The article highlights that competition for control over transport corridors, energy routes, digital platforms, and financial infrastructure increasingly determines the new geoeconomic configuration.

The research demonstrates that infrastructural decoupling is not merely a technical or economic trend but a broader political phenomenon shaped by the logic of power redistribution. Rivalry between major global actors intensifies the fragmentation of rules, standards and technological ecosystems, generating mixed effects for emerging economies and smaller states. Some countries benefit from strategic diversification of partners and new investment windows, while others become more exposed to supply disruptions and asymmetric dependencies. The study shows that the global economy is transitioning towards a hybrid connectivity landscape, where universal integration is replaced by a mosaic of competing blocs, selective partnerships and differentiated institutional architectures.

The analysis identifies several structural consequences of fragmentation for global infrastructure. These include weakened coordination of transnational projects, rising capital costs due to geopolitical uncertainty, a shift towards state-driven financing models, the prioritization of resilience over efficiency and the formation of overlapping spheres of influence. The article argues that investment renationalization has become an essential tool for governments aiming to strengthen autonomy, protect critical assets, reduce strategic exposure and support national development goals. At the same time, fragmentation stimulates new infrastructural coalitions, accelerates the search for alternative corridors and contributes to the reordering of global economic geography.

The findings confirm that infrastructural decoupling is becoming a central feature of the emerging world economy. It reshapes connectivity patterns, transforms strategic behavior, alters institutional frameworks and deepens geoeconomic competition. Understanding these processes is crucial for assessing long-term risks to global stability, investment flows and development trajectories. The article offers a conceptual foundation for interpreting the future of global infrastructure in an increasingly fragmented international environment and provides analytical tools for evaluating scenarios of renationalization, divergence and contested connectivity.