THREAT TO THE US’ NUCLEAR ORDER: CHINA AND RUSSIA DETERRENCE CRISIS 2024

Abstract

In this article, the author provides a detailed argumentation of the level of nuclear threat from Russia in the context of conventional aggression against Ukraine, analyzing acts of military cooperation and related military exercises with China where both countries of the authoritarian bloc use nuclear carriers. The author also partially compares the level of nuclear capabilities of both superpowers of the totalitarian bloc as part of the argumentation of the thesis about the need to focus NATO's attention on a higher priority threat from Russia than on challenges and threats from China. The author considers the chronological framework of 2023-2024. To effectively identify and prioritize the level of threats, the author uses the case study method, as well as the content analysis method when working with documents and official statements of representatives of the countries that are the object of this study. The author also analyzes the technical capabilities of certain nuclear carriers that Russia and China actively use in exercises and in the war in Ukraine. The theoretical basis of this work is structural realism, the theory of "ideological allies" by Mark Haas and the concept of the Heartland by Halford Mackinder, which argue for the trends of increasing geopolitical appetites of Russia, as well as the systematic involvement of allies in the bloc of authoritarian states. According to the results of this study, the author proves the thesis that Russia is the undisputed number one nuclear and conventional threat to NATO countries, as well as their allies. Therefore, the trend of reorienting and prioritizing the foreign policy of nuclear deterrence of the United States towards China may be a wrong step in view of the future potential escalation of military actions by Russia and its totalitarian bloc against democratic countries of the West, primarily in Europe.