DYNAMICS AND STRUCTURE OF WORLD SEABORNE TRADE IN 2009-2023: IMPACT OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC AND UKRAINIAN WAR

Abstract

This paper examines the dynamics and structural changes of the world seaborne trade for the period of 2009-2023 with a special focus on its vulnerability to such recent external shocks as the covid-19 pandemic outbreak and the Ukrainian war. Besides, the world seaborne trade is decomposed into major components – dry bulk trade, containerized trade and tanker trade. The volume of seaborne trade is considered in two different measurement units. The outcome of the analysis suggests that behavioral patterns of examined datasets coincide with minor differences.  Over the period under examination the volume of the world seaborne trade measured in tonnes demonstrated a general upward trend, except for 2020 and 2022. Dry bulk and container seaborne trades experienced similar changes, while the world oil and chemical seaborne trade dropped in 2019 and 2020, after which recovered. As opposed to tonnes measurement, the dry bulk seaborne trade measured in tonne-miles was under negative growth regime only once in 2022. As to tanker trade measured in tonne-miles, it declined on a year-by-year basis throughout three consecutive years – 2019, 2020, 2021. It is ascertained that volumes of global seaborne trade faced short-term impacts of said external shocks, and recovery from sudden events and adjustment to changes in macroeconomic environment and shift of trade patterns took relatively low time (from 1 to 2 years max). It was confirmed that regardless of how the market was measured, the share of each segment was identical. While the percentage of fleet in number of ships was not representative, the percentage of fleet in deadweight tonnes, as well as the percentage of trade in tonnes and tonne-miles could equally truly describe the share of each market in the shipping industry. As for the end of 2023, dry bulk sector occupied around 45-48% of the shipping industry, containership segment – approximately 15%, and wet bulk (tanker) sector – around 26-30%. In addition, an observation is made that tonne of global seaborne trade per world fleet deadweight capacity tends to follow the downward trend mainly due to emission compliance-driven decrease of vessels’ speed and increase of average haul caused by trade patterns modifications, especially the most recent.