ECONOMETRIC ASSESSMENT OF EU ENERGY MARKET RESILIENCE

Abstract

Abstract. The article explores the EU Energy Union as a strategic mechanism for strengthening the resilience of European energy markets amid geopolitical instability and energy transition. Resilience is assessed in three areas: price stability and integration, security of supply through diversification, and resilience to transition risks. The assessment used σ- and β-convergence in electricity prices for households and industry (2013–2024), the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) for electricity trading (2010–2023), and a synthetic stability index based on k-means clustering. The results show a clear segmentation: β-convergence is confirmed for industrial prices, whereas household end prices do not converge. Their dispersion increases sharply in crisis years. The concentration of partners in electricity trading declines on average after 2015, indicating a more diverse geography of flows. Countries were grouped into three clusters: ‘Leaders,’ ‘Transit Hubs,’ and ‘Vulnerable Markets.’ The number of vulnerable countries is gradually decreasing. Regulators can use the results received to prioritize investments in interconnectors and system flexibility. They will also help shape the future trajectory of Ukraine’s power system synchronization with the EU market.

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Received: 21.02.26 / Revised: 06.02.26 / Accepted: 18.03.26 / Published:30.03.26