EUROPEAN INTEGRATION POLICY OF THE BALKAN COUNTRIES IN THE CONTEXT OF MODERN GEOPOLITICAL TRANSFORMATIONS

Abstract

This article provides a comprehensive analysis of the contemporary trends, structural dynamics, and geopolitical contradictions of the European integration policy of the Balkan countries in the context of the deep transformation of the European security architecture after 2022. It examines the unique political, economic, and socio-cultural characteristics of the Western Balkan states (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Kosovo) that determine the asymmetric pace of their convergence with the European Union. Methodologically based on systemic, comparative, and regional approaches, the study examines the evolution of the EU's enlargement policy from a technocratic process of norm-alignment to a primary geopolitical and security instrument of the Union. The research investigates the strategic competition in the region among the EU, the United States, China, and Russia, showing how Serbia serves as Russia's geopolitical foothold, illustrated by the activities of sanctioned figures like A. Vulin and the involvement of Russian intelligence. It also explores China's economic footprint through the Belt and Road Initiative and its infrastructural investments in projects like the 'Danube Corridor'. It compares the integration paths of the Western Balkans and Ukraine, utilizing the taxonomy of candidate states (the frontrunners, the second-tier eastern candidates, the stagnating states, and the polarized outliers) and reinterpreting the structural difference between Ukraine's existential integration (to survive) and the Balkans' developmental integration (to catch up). Furthermore, it evaluates newly proposed integration models in 2026, such as gradual integration, the 'reverse enlargement' model for Ukraine, and F. Merz's observer status model. The paper concludes that the future of the Balkan states depends on the EU's capacity to balance institutional reforms with geopolitical credibility, ensuring that regional stagnation does not create security vacuums on the Union's external borders