STRATEGIC FORECASTING OF MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS IN THE INTERNATIONAL IT SERVICES MARKET: WAVE LOGIC OF CONSOLIDATION AND ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK FOR INVESTOR BEHAVIOUR

Abstract

The article develops an analytical framework for the strategic forecasting of mergers and acquisitions in the international IT services market, treating the wave logic of consolidation as a manifestation of structural regularities that can be operationalised for predictive purposes. The IT services market is characterised by cyclical M&A activity, with successive waves of consolidation triggered by technological shocks that redefine the structure of demand for digital competencies and the configuration of value chains. The article substantiates that consolidation waves in the IT services sector follow a three-phase pattern of technology emergence, consolidation, and integration, which distinguishes this sector from material-oriented industries where merger waves are driven primarily by deregulation or macroeconomic shifts. A multi-factor predictive framework is proposed that integrates target characteristics, investor strategies, sectoral context, and macroenvironmental conditions into a unified analytical system capable of generating probabilistic assessments of M&A activity at the firm, segment, and territorial-cluster levels. Attention is given to the differentiation of three predictive models: target prediction, buyer prediction, and pair matching, each addressing a distinct dimension of the forecasting task. The framework is applied to the analysis of consolidation dynamics in selected segments of the IT services market, including digital engineering, business process outsourcing, IT consulting, and managed services, and demonstrates sector-specific patterns of investor behaviour and the role of valuation multiples as leading indicators of consolidation pressure. The scientific novelty lies in the conceptualisation of technological shock as a sector-specific generator of merger waves and in the integration of behavioural typologies of investors with quantitative parameters of target firms into a single predictive architecture. The framework provides a methodological foundation for empirically verifying forecasting models using segment-level data and lays the groundwork for the development of strategic decision-support tools for participants in cross-border IT services markets.